I have read and seen many reports and discussions that cite climate change as an important factor influencing the timing and severity of Hurricane Sandy. There was also some discussion about this by CNN reporters as they discussed the cost of recovery and the discussion about passage of a federal aid package to add funds to the federal flood insurance program. It is true that an important feature associated with climate change is extreme and often unusual events such as long droughts, severe storms and unusual or extreme seasonal temperatures. It is also true that the severity of Hurricane Sandy was influenced by climate change through warming the water in the Atlantic Ocean that strengthened the storm. But climate change probably did not cause Hurricane Sandy; Sandy was formed by the normal tropical conditions that result in the formation of hurricanes. While a late season storm is unusual Sandy did form during the period known as “Hurricane Season”.
Certainly these extreme storms are frightening and do illustrate some of the negative consequences of climate change but there are many more subtle but more frightening potential outcomes of climate change. Changes in weather and seasonal norms will change where and how we grow food crops and raise livestock. Changes in habitat for many important disease vectors will change what populations will be exposed to some pretty scary disease causing organisms. The level of the oceans will rise as the polar ice melts increasing beach erosion and taking back some of the coastal beaches.
Ok so at this point some people are scared, some are mumbling under their breath about this lunatic that says the world is coming to an end and others are just shrugging. Well, guess what? I am not saying the world is coming to an end. In fact many species will do quite well as a result of the climate induced changes and as with past climate shifts things will change but the planet will survive. What is at question is the quality of life and the long-term survival of the human populations. Oh and anyone that says the climate isn’t changing must have failed geology, because the climate has always been changing. The planet has experienced long-duration ice ages, short-duration ice ages, long-duration warming periods and short-term warming periods.
So what do we do? Well, I think we start asking what changes are expected and what their impact will be on human populations and ecosystems. Then we need to develop a strategy to – if possible – slow down or reverse the changes. But more importantly we need to start asking what social changes are necessary to survive and flourish under the new conditions. Actually, that might ultimately be a positive and maybe even fun thing if we are proactive and aggressive and get to work.